When it comes to Tourism, among probably 180 tourism economies worldwide, the USA is the only country facing a decline in international visitor spending in 2025. Every other country is growing. USA Tourism is shrinking.
The Collapse is Real and Getting Worse
The United States faces an 8.2% decline in international overnight arrivals for 2025. International visitor spending will fall below $169 billion this year, down from $181 billion last year. That’s a vanishing $12 billion from the US economy.
Tourism Economics originally predicted 9% growth in international visitors in 2025. Now they forecast an 8.2% decline instead. That’s not a small miscalculation. It’s a complete reversal.
When every country in the world today rates and values tourism very highly, the USA is setting up a Tourism disaster waiting to happen. The USA is the only country in the world where the tourism industry has gone backwards. Why?
The reduction in tourism by the closest neighbour to the US explains the story best. About one-quarter fewer Canadians are visiting the US compared to earlier in the year. The biggest tourism partner of the USA is cutting visits by 25%.
US nationals are travelling abroad more than ever, but foreign tourists are avoiding the USA. The math is brutal.
What Creates a Good Tourism Environment?
In order to analyse the negative performance of the USA, let’s first look at what makes for a good tourism environment. What are the ingredients of tourism success? The following are the most important factors:
- Tourist attractions, including places of historical importance, amazing nature, and leisure activity locations, like theme parks.
- Safety and security of the destinations for travellers.
- Easy-to-obtain visas with hassle-free application processes.
- Good and convenient transportation into the country, and within the country.
- Good accommodation at the destination for all levels of spending.
- Appealing cuisine.
- Attractive leisure activities.
- Competitive prices compared to other international destinations.
A lot goes into creating and maintaining an attractive holiday destination for international visitors. It takes decades to build one.
Attractions in the USA
Let’s see what the tourism pullers are in the United States. The USA has a lot of what tourists look for in a destination. Apart from the lack of major historical sites (which only seem to go back about 450 to 500 years — unless one goes off the beaten track), the USA has most of what tourists need. Tourists loved visiting the United States.
Unfortunately for the US, other countries have been working hard on improving their infrastructure, but the USA has ignored the writing on the wall. It still does.
Safety and Security
There were very few countries in the world that offered the levels of safety and security that the USA did. Visitors were confident in the protection of law enforcement. Today, unfortunately, with the right-in-the-face presence of the Border Security Force at entry points, ICE everywhere and the National Guard deployed in several cities, tourists do not feel comfortable. Tourists, rightly or wrongly, think that they could be erroneously hauled up and sent to some detention centre, and forgotten about.
Daunting Visa Processes
Most travellers find obtaining a visa to any country a stressful process. With the USA, the current government and administration have made obtaining a US visa an expensive and time-consuming process for most people. They are beginning to skip the Country.
The visa process scares millions away. For tourists from countries like India, China, Mexico, Brazil, and most of Africa and the Middle East, a US tourist visa now costs $442. That includes the standard $185 application fee plus a new $250 “visa integrity fee” that came into effect on October 1, 2025. This makes the tourist visa for the USA one of the most expensive in the world.
It gets worse. Travellers from countries with high overstay rates must also post a bond ranging from $5,000 to $15,000. The pilot programme was started on August 20, 2025. Imagine tourists from Zambia or Malawi who must pay $15,000 as a deposit just to visit the USA. Even if they get it back later, most simply cannot afford it.
Consider a middle-class family from India planning their dream Disney vacation. They wait months for visa appointments. They pay $442 per person just for the visa. A family of four will have to spend $1,768 in visa fees alone before booking a single flight or hotel. They spend time and money travelling to US consulates for interviews. Then they face the stress of the uncertainty of approval. Given the hassles, many travellers simply dump the USA and choose Dubai or Singapore instead.
Transit Without a Visa (TWOV), does not exist in the US for many travellers. Imagine a family from Central and South America trying to make a transit connection at a US gateway. Their challenges begin with the US tourist visa that is required just to make a simple airline connection.
The US solution is the Electronic System for Travel Authorisation (ESTA) offered to a selected list of nationalities. Forty-two countries are listed on the Visa Waiver Program (VWP). It is a quagmire on its own.
Why the World is Avoiding the USA
Apart from security enforcement, border security and visa costs, everything in the US is becoming more expensive in comparison to other popular tourist destinations. Thailand offers luxury at half the US price. Why should travellers choose Destination-USA?
US airports create terrible first impressions. Security lines stretch forever. Terminals look old and tired. Delays happen constantly. Then, visitors see ICE agents and National Guard troops deployed at airports and borders. The heavy security presence feels intimidating and unwelcoming.
Tourists arriving in the US encounter an atmosphere that feels more like a military checkpoint than a vacation destination. Even European travellers have reported being detained at borders for questioning. Stories spread quickly on social media. Friends warn friends to avoid the US.
Visitors finally reach their destinations to find limited public transportation. Service staff mostly speak only English. The welcome feels cold. The entire experience screams, “You’re not wanted here.”
Other countries roll out the red carpet. Japan offers visa-free travel. European cities have excellent public transportation. Southeast Asia delivers premium experiences at budget prices. The USA offers hassle and expense.
What is the Real Cost of the Retrograde Tourism to the USA
Tourism contributed more than $585 billion in tax revenue annually. That accounts for almost 7% of all government income. When visitors vanish, so does this money.
State and local governments lose hotel occupancy taxes. They lose sales taxes on tourist purchases. Airport fees and parking revenue disappear. Income from restaurant and entertainment taxes drops. These aren’t optional revenues to be shrugged off. They fund schools, police departments, roads, and public services.
Tourism is the invisible export of the USA. When foreigners visit, they’re buying US services. The $12.5 billion loss worsens the County’s trade position. That money has now started flowing to Thailand, Portugal, and Mexico instead.
Even more alarming: this tourism collapse may cause the loss of an estimated 230,000 US jobs. Tourism jobs can’t be automated. Unlike manufacturing, these positions require human interaction. When visitors disappear, technology can’t save these jobs. Real people lose real livelihoods.
There is the added investment required when the Industry begins to schedule a resurgence. Trained employees would have left the industry for good. New employees will have to be trained to take on the vacancies. It takes several years to train and create a good Travel employee. The product, when it comes back, will cost more to the end user: the traveller.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup Won’t Fix USA Tourism
Some people think the 2026 FIFA World Cup will bring back tourism. It is touted that the tournament could generate $5 billion and support 40,000 jobs. Some estimates suggest $17.1 billion in positive economic impact. The numbers look impressive on paper.
Here is the reality. The tournament lasts one month. Most jobs are temporary. Only 16 cities benefit. A hotel in Denver won’t see any boost from games in Los Angeles.
More importantly, the World Cup addresses none of the underlying problems. Visa processing continues to be painfully slow and expensive. The political rhetoric continues. Infrastructure remains outdated. A stronger dollar still makes the US more expensive for foreign visitors.
When the final whistle blows in July 2026, the US will return to the same crisis. The World Cup would have been a brief distraction, not a solution. Some refer to it as a band-aid on a broken leg.
The USA Faces a Choice
The crisis is clear. The solution is harder, but possible.
Other countries approve tourist visas in days. The USA takes months from the application to the issuing of visas. This must change. The USA needs to invest in faster processing.
Border staff need customer service training. They could even learn from some Gulf Arab countries. First impressions matter. Welcoming entry experiences make visitors want to return.
US airports need massive upgrades. Efficient security shouldn’t take an hour. Comfortable waiting areas aren’t luxuries. Quick connections between terminals matter. These basics exist in airports worldwide.
Gun violence headlines create fear among potential visitors. Crime statistics worry international travellers. The USA needs comprehensive strategies to improve both the reality and perception of safety.
USA tourism must offer clearer value for money. Package deals help. All-inclusive options work. Transparent pricing offsets currency disadvantages. Visitors need to feel they’re getting good value despite the strong dollar.
Visitors from countries with excellent public transport find the USA’s car-dependent culture frustrating and expensive. Major tourist destinations need better transit options. Not everyone wants to rent a car.
From contactless payments to mobile booking systems, the US lags behind other destinations. Digital convenience matters to modern travellers. Simple improvements in technology create smoother experiences.
But here’s the hard truth: with projected losses of 2025, the US tourism industry may take years to recover.
The Clock is Ticking
Every other country is growing Tourism. Only the USA is shrinking it.
The World Cup offers a brief showcase opportunity, but without fixing fundamental problems, it will be a temporary spike in an otherwise declining trend. One month of soccer won’t reverse years of decline.
The USA once led the world in tourism. Visitors dreamed of seeing the Statue of Liberty, the Grand Canyon, and the Disney locations. They wanted the US experience. Now they’re choosing other destinations.
The tourism industry employs millions. It generates billions in revenue. It supports communities across the country. Right now, it’s crying for help. So far, the USA isn’t listening.
Credit Images – Featured Image: Filip Filipovic — Pixabay. Mount Rushmore © HaloweenHJB – Pixabay
Sources: Tourism Economics, World Travel & Tourism Council, US Travel Association, Fortune, CBS News.
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Great writeup Mano. Sad but true! Unfortunately, I don’t see the situation improving during the current Administration.
Hi Chris, good to hear from you. To the rest of the world it appears that US tourism has peaked and will now only be a gradual downward curve for many years to come, unless this government or the one that follows, does something bout it. In the meantime other countries that take tourism seriously, will see better days.
Excellent! 👏👏👏
Not only have you thought out comprehensively the harsh reality-checks, you have advised possible, and practicable solutions in a structured manner.
This article should be an eye-opener to the powers-that-be.
Keep up the good work!
Thank you for your comment Sanath. For those of us who were, or still are in the Travel business, this is a sorry state of affairs with US Tourism. The country that was a leader in tourism is now going backwards.
A realistic observation and write up.
All creatures have its own lifecycle, and a nation too is not an exemption.
Infancy, childhood, adolescence, early adulthood, middle adulthood, and late adulthood (or old age), these have to go through.
US is in which stage of above will tell us what next.
Those who migrate are those who have born curious, ambitious, adventurous, and hardworking.
US took birth, and grown up with those kind of creamy layer or elite class from other parts of the world who migrated. Obviously it had and has the edge of it.
But none can grow endlessly with the same rate, while others chase and grow par with them. It will have to accept the fact and reinvent themselves or lose.
Thank you for your comment, Dileep. That’s an entirely different angle! Yes, I agree everything is cyclical. The Roman Empire was part of that cycle as well. I am waiting for the US correction! 🙂
You have summarized things well Mano.
It is indeed sad that our government is not focused on welcoming guests to our country and on making the visitor experience a positive one – the visa situation is the most egregious case of their failure in this.
From having to pay for a trolley at the baggage carousel to paying exorbitant entry fees at museums like the Met and not having a convenient, low cost way to travel across this large and beautiful country (like the JR pass in Japan) – a lot must be done to make guests feel loved and welcome.
We hope our government will take steps to address your concerns.
Thank you for your comment Vasanth. At the moment, tourism seems to be last on the list of the US Administration’s concerns. I hope they get down to it quickly. The sad truth is that by the time they get to it, several other countries will have moved ahead. Then, the US will have to catch up to create a new user experiences. Chances are, they will be even more expensive than now.
Mano, you have covered most factors that affect USA tourism very well.
Visa process has become cumbersome, e.g. Appointment (slots not available for over 300 days). Potentially, one can incur substantial loss (financial & emotional) within five minutes, if interviews goes south. Also, most feel that the interview is stressful.
USA airports have lagged behind, compared many airports, especially the Gulf Countries, India, etc.
USA charm has reduced due to various reasons, i.e. Distance from other part of the world, Safety, Lack of public transport, Regulation changes at short notice etc.
Travellers are looking to explore new destinations.
Other important aspects are, unsafe feeling.
Service standards have fallen & add to that is the compulsory & demanding ‘Tipping culture’.
Thank you for your comments, Rajeev. I agree completely. I did not realise the waiting period for the Visa Interview in the UAE is now over 300 days. My gut feeling is that it will be longer in India. Added to it, the visa fees seem to be set to discourage tourism. Many segments of the US Tourism Industry must alreading be screaming for help. We need to watch the space.
Great article Mano. Very concise and well put together with strong pertinent points. I think much of govt policy is driven by their understanding of what tourism brings. Might be tough for real estate developers to understand the full Monty ! 😉
Love that tongue-in-cheek comment, Fahim. Tourism, as we know, is very complex. It takes a seasoned tourism person to understand the entire picture.
Your passion for travel and tourism is truly inspiring, and it’s amazing to see you’re still ruling the industry like a king! Wishing you many more adventures and continued success.
Thank you for your kind comment, Anita. Sadly, US Tourism is crying for help. Only one entity can help the industry: The US government.